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China US Photo: GT

The economic decoupling between the US and trung quốc is not a new trend.

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A decade ago, US manufacturing factories began to leave đài loan trung quốc because of increasingly expensive labor costs. The more recent bilateral trade war brought a second dimension into the flight of US companies as high tariffs threatened to disrupt đài loan trung quốc imports alongside rising costs. This year COVID-19 has brought a third dimension into the complex situation.According lớn global manufacturing consulting firm Kearney’s đài loan trung quốc Diversification Index, đài loan trung quốc accounted for 67 percent of all US manufacturing imports in 2013, while that figure fell to lớn 56 percent in the final quarter of 2019. Boston Consulting Group estimated that “two-way trade between the US and trung quốc in 2023 will have shrunk by around 15 percent, or about $128 billion, from 2019 levels.” Meanwhile, the world’s supply chains have become less China-centric while a “strategic breakup” with china is looming amid the global pandemic.In the Chinese mainland, however, the strength of its manufacturing base makes it hard khổng lồ write off.The “2020 trung quốc Business Climate Survey Report” released by the American Chamber of Commerce said 83 percent of American companies had no plans khổng lồ relocate manufacturing or sourcing outside of China, while only 8 percent have considered but have not taken steps, & 9 percent have started the process of relocating manufacturing or sourcing outside of China. Although nearly 20 percent of American companies have moved or are considering leaving china primarily due to lớn rising costs and US tariffs on products exported from China, this exodus from china is declining. More than half of those surveyed wanted lớn continue khổng lồ produce in trung quốc to sell in its huge domestic market. Still đôi mươi percent of US companies rank china as their “first priority” and 39 percent rank trung quốc a “top-three priority” in their near-term investment plans.A total of 197 American companies participated in the 3rd china International Import Expo held from November 5-10 in Shanghai, ranking them third, while 1,373 American products were exhibited, ranking them first in the expo.Statistics show that the decoupling of US companies from trung quốc has not occurred on a big scale.Several factors make a complete US-China decoupling impossible.China’s role in global supply chains is too important lớn be replaced. As a production base for industries such as electronics, automobiles, machinery manufacturing, và chemicals, trung quốc has formed a huge mature industrial cluster, where enterprises can benefit from a high efficiency of integrated supporting facilities with a large amount of raw materials, cheap upstream products and proprietary technologies.In the world of globalization, a supply chain has been fully optimized around Chinese factories as the result of a long process of industrial growth. To lớn date, there’s no country that can perfectly replace China.A long-term shortage of professionals in the manufacturing industry in the US makes Chinese expertise indispensable. Apple, for example, has been asked to lớn move its production line khổng lồ the US since the Obama administration, but a severe lack of professional engineers in the US is a hurdle too high. Today most of Apple’s production is still based in China.Then there’s the Chinese market itself, which remains robust.

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In “World Economic Outlook Report” released in October, the IMF predicted that the global economy will shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020, while the Chinese economy will grow by 1.9 percent, making it the only major economy in the world khổng lồ achieve positive growth. Furthermore, đài loan trung quốc has vowed to lớn forge a more “open và inclusive” environment to keep multinational companies onshore và woo foreign financial giants to its huge domestic market. According lớn “2020 đài loan trung quốc Business Climate Survey Report,” 91 percent of American companies surveyed said their businesses in đài loan trung quốc remain profitable.The coronavirus pandemic has all but brought the US economy lớn its knees, with production dropping dramatically and costs on the rise. The Economic Prosperity Network initiated by Trump administration aimed lớn transfer manufacturing industry from china to other countries lượt thích Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam, has failed as companies found it hard to lớn pull out of đài loan trung quốc without an effective financial government incentives.The Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods backfired as it was American companies that were forced to lớn absorb the extra cost. According to truyền thông reports, in September about 3,500 US companies have sued the Trump administration over the tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese-made goods.In his article published in Financial Times, “Thucydides trap” Graham Allison pointed out that although some American politicians advocate “decoupling” from China, the gravitational pull of China’s growing economy will be irresistible for US key companies. So the new US administration must khuyễn mãi giảm giá with the difficulties of reshoring.In its 92-page platform outlines, the Democrats say they will “take aggressive action against trung quốc or any other country that tries khổng lồ undercut American manufacturing.” Biden vows to lớn leverage tax policy to move jobs và manufacturing to lớn the US. On this point, there is little difference between Biden & Trump. As US-China conflict tend khổng lồ be long term & structural in nature, it doesn’t matter much who comes to lớn power, the two countries will remain locked in a strategic competition for economic and technological dominance.The US will find it hard to lớn achieve a sustainable manufacturing reshoring until every effort is made lớn expand its competitiveness as professional labor training, effective tax incentives and investments to lớn grow research and development. China, meanwhile, will also have khổng lồ confront challenges from the world supply chain restructuring over the long run, due khổng lồ its own rising labor cost, US-China trade disputes, & as de-globalization raises geopolitical competition and global public emergencies. Under these circumstances, China’s economic shift into an “domestic circulation” is expected khổng lồ tackle the crucial external environment. In the long run, an escalation of domestic industrial structure through innovation và high-tech development is critical lớn increasing China’s competitiveness.The author is visiting fellow at GW NRC for East Asian Studies, chief of Division for International Exchange, Office for International Exchange và Cooperation, Beijing Foreign Studies University. Bizopinion

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